Mozambique’s Opposition had DC Allies During the Cold War, but Maputo is Forgotten Amidst Current Conflict

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Central African Republic, Cold War, FRELIMO, Heritage Foundation, Invisible Children, Joseph Kony, MDM, Mozambique, Mozambique Presidential election, RENAMO, Zimbabwe

At the beginning of the year I noted that the DC policy community may come to regret the lack of focus on the situation in the Central African Republic following the forced departure of the incumbent President (and I reiterated those concerns a few months later).  I still find it strange that in a situation where the media portrays a Muslim minority taking control of a Christian majority nation via force and where Hezbollah is alleged to have some sort of presence, DC Africa watchers are not taking greater notice of this situation.  It is particularly odd that the Joseph Kony crusaders (like Invisible Children and Enough) are not being more visible during this conflict in light of claims that CAR’s President is negotiating for his surrender.  However, outsourcing diplomacy on this issue to France should help the US taxpayer.

Another situation marked by a distinct lack of interest in DC securocrat circles, though not as grave as that in the CAR, is the deteriorating security and political situation in Mozambique.  In October, RENAMO repudiated the 1992 Rome Peace Accord that ended the country’s long running civil war.  In recent months, RENAMO has launched attacks on civilians and government installations, resulting in numerous fatalities.  RENAMO is based very close to the Zimbabwean border and these actions have brought strong warnings from Harare, although as far as I can tell there has not been significant regional concern (and what of Zim following the July elections?).

Amidst this surge in violence, municipal elections were recently held.  Although the ruling FRELIMO party continues to dominate the political scene, the MDM, a breakaway faction of RENAMO, now governs three of Mozambique’s four largest cities.  In the 1980s, Cold War politics led to RENAMO opening an office within the conservative DC think tank, the Heritage Foundation.  Presidential elections for Mozambique are less than a year away.  Although I recognize that history has moved on from Cold War intrigues, I am very surprised that the DC Africa scene has not exhibited a greater interest in these tensions, particularly in light of Mozambique’s enhanced economic fortunes as of late.

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Whither Zimbabwe’s Elections and CAR’s Political Transition in DC?

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Central African Republic, Enough Project, Great Lakes Policy Forum, Invisible Children, Kenya elections Zimbabwe comparison, Kony 2012, mineral wealth CAR, Obama on Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, South Africans in CAR, US policy on Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe elections

Zimbabwe’s July 31^st election and the political transition following the March coup in the Central African Republic are two issues that have been conspicuously absent from debate in DC Africanist circles.  My thoughts on both:

Zimbabwe: The lack of discussion surrounding the elections in Zimbabwe is particularly puzzling.  It is an Anglophone country, it borders South Africa, where the US has immense interests, and it is a place where many figures of import in DC likely have personal exposure to – they may have visited on safari, perhaps they went to school with someone from the country, or maybe they just get worked up by the antics of Robert Mugabe.

There have been a few local events, such as this one I went to at Freedom House, as well as a Congressional hearing, but this pales in comparison to the attention that Kenya received in the months before its elections.  I can only suppose that ‘Zimbabwe fatigue’ has settled in.  In any event, this lack of coverage bodes ill for Zimbabwe’s future – those inclined to abuse power will probably feel emboldened to do so.  Obama briefly spoke on the need for reforms in Zimbabwe during his recent visit to South Africa, but even his criticism did not generate much discussion.

Central African Republic:  The lack of interest here is not unsurprising.  The country is Francophone, landlocked, and has been mismanaged throughout its history, so despite its mineral wealth, the coup probably did not impact the prevailing status quo in regards to Western interests.  Most tellingly, I have not even been to a CAR event to which I can provide a link to a post on Africa in DC (though I did hear of a protest in front of the White House).

However, there are other angles that makes the extent of Washington’s hands off approach somewhat unexpected.  Following the incredible success of Invisible Children’s Kony 2012 documentary, the AU dedicated forces to tracking down Kony and they are being supported by a small contingent of US forces in Central Africa (I believe the Americans are based in Uganda, though Kony is widely suspected of being in CAR).  Unrest in CAR is undoubtedly good for the Lord’s Resistance Army – why then are civil society groups not agitating for greater US engagement in the country?  Perhaps this is because active DC organizations focusing on Central Africa, such as the Enough Project and the Great Lakes Policy Forum, do not include CAR in their analysis.

Over a dozen South Africans lost their lives defending the previous CAR administration, a development that may also have significant repercussions.  Finally, the transfer or power through military means is increasingly decried across the continent as it clashes with the Africa Rising narrative, I am surprised that there have not been louder murmurs regarding the need for a prompt democratic transition.

Again, I suspect the silence here bodes ill for the CAR’s future.